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FEBRUARY 28,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

SESSIONS – Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama, a conservative mainstay in the Senate, has endorsed Donald Trump for president.  This is two days before the heavily southern Super Tuesday primaries.  Trump is neither a conservative nor a Republican, but the endorsement came nonetheless.  If you were to ask me what the Republican Party stands for these days, I'd be hard pressed to answer.  If Trump gets the nomination, we'd have to wait for the party platform at the convention to find out what his views are.  I think parties have to be reasonably flexible, and open to being the "big tent" necessary to win elections.  But they can't be all things to all people.  I fear that's what happening in both parties today.

MAJOR POLITICAL NEWS – John Kasich makes a decision.  From The Hill:   Republican presidential hopeful John Kasich said on Saturday that he will drop out of the race if he doesn't win his home state of Ohio.  "I will beat Donald Trump in Ohio, and that will be the beginning of a new day," Kasich told a crowd in Nashville, according to the New York Times.  "Some of the other candidates, if they can't win their home state, they got to get out, OK?" he added. "If I don't win my home state, I'll get out. But you know what? I'm going to win Ohio."  John Kasich is a good guy, and has been a fine governor.  But you know, Johnny, isn't it a little late in the game to be depending on your home state to give you a boost?  I mean, what about all those other states?  What are they, chopped liver? 

DEM ENTHUSIASM DOWN – From Daily Caller:   Democrats have seen a 26 percent decrease in the number of voters and caucusgoers who have showed up to the polls this year compared to 2008, when the party last had a competitive primary race.  Interestingly enough, that steep decline is the inverse of the spike in Republican turnout this cycle compared to 2012, when Mitt Romney earned the party’s nomination.  Clinton routed Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in South Carolina on Saturday, winning 74 percent of the vote to Sanders’ 26 percent. While the huge margin of victory is good news for Clinton — polls had her winning, but more narrowly — the overall voter turnout must set off alarms for her campaign, as well as for the Democratic party. Whereas 532,000 South Carolina Democrats voted in 2008, only 367,000 showed up Saturday.  There is nothing about the Democratic Party to arouse enthusiasm.  At least our side can promise an exciting circus.

February 28, 2016       Permalink

ENDLESS PANDERING – AT 1:24 P.M. ET:   Hillary Clinton doesn't know when to stop.  She panders, and panders, and panders, but forgets those who are owed respect.  From Fox: 

Hillary Clinton paid tribute Saturday during her primary victory rally to the mothers of black victims killed by police and civilians – while ignoring the rising number of police killed by gunfire in the line of duty this year.

The Democratic presidential candidate paused during her speech in Columbia, S.C., to honor the five women, who also campaigned with her across South Carolina before Saturday’s primary.

“They all lost children, which is almost unimaginable, yet they have not been broken or embittered,” Clinton said, adding that they have turned their “mourning into a movement.”

She recited the names of Sybrina Fulton, mother of Trayvon Martin; Gwen Carr, mother of Eric Garner; and the three others.

But she did not mention the rash of police fatalities. So far this year, according to the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund, 10 officers have been shot and killed, representing a 900 percent increase in firearms-related officer deaths compared with this time last year.

Most recently, Cpl. Nate Carrigan was fatally shot while serving an eviction notice in Colorado. And on Saturday, three officers reportedly were shot and wounded in Prince William County, Va., outside the nation’s capital.

COMMENT:  Update:  One of the officers shot in Virginia was a policewoman, and she was killed.  It was her first day on the job.  Apparently, she was not worthy of mention by a woman trying to become president.  Pretty disgraceful.

February 28, 2016       Permalink

OSCAR NIGHT – AT 12:55 P.M. ET:  This is Oscar night.  Used to be a big deal.  The film industry was at its best, dressed up in elegant clothes that you could show on family television.  Movie stars knew how to behave and how to be interviewed.  There was a certain style and class.  There was real glamour.

It's been a long way down.  I will spent part of today planning on how to avoid the Oscars.  I will not watch.  I've never heard of most of the movies or a good number of the "stars."  I am not interested in the anticipated speeches on the lack of diversity in Hollywood.  They will be pompous and earnest, and nothing will be done because it's almost impossible to manufacture diversity in an artistic medium.

(Oh, by the way, with all the yapping about the lack of diversity in Hollywood, have you ever wondered why African Americans do so well in the music industry?  That would be a great story, if someone were willing to tell it.) 

We don't have a real American movie industry today.  The business is international.  Even American filmmakers know they are playing to a partly or even mostly foreign audience.  And our "stars" are kind of semi-stars, made into stars by their success in one or two films.  In the golden age, actual film studios, like MGM, made movies and movie stars.  MGM had schools to train actors and actresses in their craft, and in doing the work of a movie star – appearing in public, being interviewed, even walking down a street.  And the style showed.   

The excitement has gone out.  So has the stature.  Who is today's Gary Cooper?  or Audrey Hepburn?  Or Humphrey Bogart?  Or Grace Kelly?  Or Judy Garland?

The excitement today in Hollywood is in television.  We are in television's second golden age.  There are fine things to see, both in series television and in documentaries.  Television has become vital again.  If I were starting out in the business, that's where I'd be.

February 28, 2016       Permalink 

NEW SUPER TUESDAY POLL – AT 11:31 A.M.  ET:  Looks like Trump and Clinton on Tuesday, but Trump's numbers don't look especially great in the states polled, whereas Clinton's do.  From NBC News: 

Donald Trump is leading in the Super Tuesday states of Georgia and Tennessee, while Ted Cruz is ahead in his home state of Texas, according to a trio of new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

And Hillary Clinton is topping Bernie Sanders in all three of those southern states by about a 2-to-1 margin.

In Georgia, Trump gets support from 30 percent of likely Republican voters — followed by Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio tied at 23 percent each, and Ben Carson and John Kasich tied at 9 percent each.

In Tennessee, Trump leads Cruz by 18 points, 40 percent to 22 percent, while Rubio gets 19 percent, Carson 9 percent and Kasich at 6 percent.

But in Texas, Cruz is ahead at 39 percent - followed by Trump at 26 percent, Rubio at 16 percent, Carson at 8 percent and Kasich at 6 percent.

In the Democratic race, meanwhile, Clinton leads Sanders in Georgia by 34 points among likely Democratic primary voters, 64 percent to 30 percent.  In Tennessee, Clinton is ahead by 26 points, 60 percent to 34 percent.  And in Texas, she's up by 21 points, 59 percent to 38 percent.

COMMENT:  Trump can only be happy about Tennessee, where he barely hits 40%.  Remember, he's the "frontrunner."  In Georgia the "frontrunner" is at 30%.  In Texas he's at 26%.  In other words, the argument that a solid majority of Republicans aren't for Trump holds up, at least in these states.  We'll see about the others.  I'm particularly interested in Virginia, which is becoming a national indicator.

On the Dem side, Hillary is cruising.  However, I wouldn't count Sanders out entirely.  Georgia, Tennessee and Texas have large minority populations.  Not all states do.  What is ironic is that Sanders has a long history of support for minority aspirations, whereas Clinton's record is less distinguished.  But in the fever swamps of Democratic politics, minorities, especially blacks, tend to vote the way their leaders say to vote, and Hillary is close to the leaders.

February 28,  2016     Permalink

FEBRUARY 27,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET:

HILLARY ROMPS – From Fox:   Hillary Clinton cruised Saturday to an easy victory in the South Carolina Democratic primary, taking back the momentum from Bernie Sanders heading into Super Tuesday – though Sanders will keep his foothold in the race as he continues to rack up delegates and contributions.  The Democratic front-runner won largely on the strength of her support from black voters – her so-called “firewall” that, in the end, held up.  Exit polls showed nearly nine in 10 black voters supported Clinton in the Palmetto State, and she hopes that bloc will carry her over her rival as the race heads deeper into the South. With a Nevada and South Carolina win now under her belt, Clinton is working hard to shake off her big loss to Sanders earlier this month in New Hampshire.  “Tomorrow, this campaign goes national,” Clinton declared at her victory rally in Columbia, S.C.   She'll probably get the nomination unless the FBI derails her, but her dependence on the black vote could create some uneasiness, especially among other minorities who feel they're being elbowed out.   Minorities do not necessarily love each other or work well with each other.

MIRACLE – From money.cnn.com:   For the first time in nearly 97 years, the price of a stamp is set to go down.  On April 10, a first-class stamp will cost 47 cents, down from its current 49-cent price.  The reduction is part of a pre-arranged agreement with Congress. The Post Office got to increase the price of stamps by 3 cents in 2014 to help it raise $4.6 billion in revenue. But the price hike was only set to last two years. (It gets to keep one cent of the increase to keep up with inflation).  The Post Office is practically begging Congress to let it keep stamps at 49 cents. It says rolling back prices to 47 cents will cost the already badly bleeding Post Office $2 billion a year.  I'll bet the Post Office will eventually get its way, and we'll be paying 49 cents again. 

MY HEART BREAKS – From CNN:  MSNBC's Melissa Harris-Perry is refusing to host her show this Saturday due to weeks of pre-emptions that she says have left her "silenced."  In an email to her staff that was posted on Medium, Harris-Perry said she felt "worthless" in the eyes of NBC News executives after consecutive weeks in which her show was replaced by general news programming.  The letter, which began "Dearest Nerds," read, "Here is the reality: Our show was taken — without comment or discussion or notice — in the midst of an election season. After four years of building an audience, developing a brand and developing trust with our viewers, we were effectively and utterly silenced."  A committed leftist, Harris-Perry will probably not be returning to MSNBC, according to late reports.  She is straight party line, and preaches to the choir.  MSNBC, hurting in the ratings, is apparently trying to shake its image as a left-wing sandbox.  That will take time, and talent.

February 27, 2016       Permalink 

THIS IS AWFUL – AT 12:38 P.M. ET:   Must we racialize everything in this society?  We are talking about the United States Supreme Court, and, once again, we have a demand based, not on character or quality, but on race.  From The Hill:   

Black lawmakers in Congress are urging President Obama to make history by nominating Attorney General Loretta Lynch to the Supreme Court.

Lynch, if confirmed, would become the first African-American woman to serve as a justice. She would also be the first African-American appointed by a Democratic president since Thurgood Marshall, an influential liberal who retired in 1991.

Members of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) argue the court’s only African-American justice, Clarence Thomas, who was nominated by George H.W. Bush in 1991, doesn’t represent the interests of their constituents.

“I would love to see him appoint Loretta Lynch. She’s already been vetted. She meets the criteria that he’s laid out. She would certainly be my recommendation,” said Elijah Cummings, a senior member of the CBC.

Cummings noted that African-American women voters helped Obama win the presidency.

“African American women have played a major role in our electoral process. They vote at a high rate,” he said.

COMMENT:  Talk about crass appeals.  By the majority of accounts, Loretta Lynch is a fine woman, respected on both sides of the aisle.  To the best of my knowledge, she has no judicial experience, which is a clear deficit.

There are many groups that are unrepresented on the Court.  Ironically, if Lynch is nominated and confirmed, she would be the only Protestant on the Supreme Court.  But there are no Asian Americans, and no pro-life Catholic women.  I could go down a whole list of the "unrepresented."

It's silly.  How about appointing the best candidate available?  Is that such a radical idea?

February 27, 2016       Permalink 

TALK ABOUT SCARY – AT 12:08 P.M. ET:  As readers know, my enthusiasm for Donald Trump is under control.   One reason for my hesitation is his vindictiveness, his utter hatred of any opponent.   Now Trump is going after the media, one of my favorite targets as well.  Maybe I should be cheering him, but what he's saying chills me to the bone.  This is not legitimate criticism of a biased, lazy press.  This is totalitarianism, plain and simple.  From AP:

Washington (AP) — Donald Trump said Friday he will weaken First Amendment protections for reporters as president, making it easier for him to sue them.

The celebrity businessman turned Republican presidential front-runner said he wants to “open up” libel laws at a rally in Fort Worth, Texas. The changes envisioned by Trump would mean that “when they write purposely negative and horrible and false articles, we can sue them and win lots of money,” he said.

Huh?  Don't journalists have the right to create negative articles?  There are plenty of bad and biased journalists and plenty of bad reporting.  This is not the way to deal with the problem.

Trump added that, should he be elected, news organizations that have criticized him will “have problems.” He specifically mentioned The New York Times and The Washington Post. Trump last month threatened to sue the Post after the newspaper wrote an article about the bankruptcy of his Atlantic City casino. On Twitter, Trump has routinely criticized reporters who cover him and their news organizations, including The Associated Press.

First Amendment advocates condemned Trump’s suggestions.

“His statement shows why we need libel protections,” said Gregg Leslie, the legal defense director for the Washington-based Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press. “Trump gets offended, he gets upset and he wants to sue to retaliate. That’s not a good reason to sue someone.”

Libel law in the United States generally makes it difficult for public figures to sue reporters or other people who criticize them. To win such a case, the plaintiff must demonstrate that factually incorrect statements were made with actual malice or a reckless disregard for the truth.

Trump said he would like to lower that standard. “We’re going to have people sue you like you never got sued before,” he said.

COMMENT:   Trump is typical of moguls of his class – on the phone with his lawyers too much of the time.  He is symbolic of the lawsuit society. 

His comments are very threatening to the Constitution.  Bad journalism is a serious problem in this society, but lawsuits will only destroy some journalists and intimidate others.   Journalists will hesitate to conduct investigations of powerful figures for fear that they'll be hauled into court.  The main beneficiaries of Trump's changes will not be people who are improperly attacked in the press, but people, some of them probably very bad people, who have the money to pursue lawsuits.

By the way, I believe there is a proper place for lawsuits against news organizations.  But Trump's vindictive sledgehammer doesn't qualify.

February 27, 2016       Permalink 

SOUTH CAROLINA VOTES TODAY – AT 11:56 A.M. ET:  (Sorry to get started so late.  There was a mass of material to read this morning, much of it very, very good.)  The Democratic primary in South Carolina is held today.  Polls show Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead, due mostly to the large African-American community in the state. 

Super Tuesday is Tuesday.  Clinton also appears to have a substantial lead in the states that will participate.

However, national Democratic polls show Clinton and Bernie Sanders very close.  The fact is that Clinton is not very popular.  And the fact is that the Democratic Party, under Obama, has shifted to the left.  Clinton is seen as center-left.  Even if she wins the nomination, she may be the last candidate of that description to be nominated by the once-great Democratic Party.  This ain't the party of Roosevelt and Truman, and Jack Kennedy couldn't get a seat at the convention.

We've said repeatedly that the 900-pound gorilla in the room is the FBI investigation hanging over Clinton's head.  If it turns south for her, it might force her out of the race, or lower her numbers to the point where her nomination is in jeopardy.  In that case, I don't think the party will turn to the outsider, Bernie Sanders, but to Joe Biden, who would be Obama's pick.

February 27,  2016     Permalink